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Recently,大眾中國 has officially announced its collaboration with 寧德時代 in the battery swapping domain, planning to launch standardized battery modules compatible with multiple vehicle models. As the world's largest traditional automotive manufacturer,大眾's decision reflects not only its anxiety over the need for continuous improvement in charging infrastructure but also marks the transition of the swap mode from a niche market dominated by startups to a mainstream automotive player's competition. This move is seen not only as a key strategic response by 大眾 to address the insufficient charging infrastructure and enhance user refueling efficiency but also as a significant upgrade in the competitive landscape of the swap market.

In the context of accelerating the layout of charging infrastructure and heightened user anxiety over refueling efficiency, can the swap mode break through its commercialization impasse? As the competition over technical paths intensifies, how will the strategic choices and collaborative efforts of the supply chain ecosystem restructure the market dynamics?

進(jìn)入主流車企競逐新階段

The core strength of the swap mode lies in its "3-minute full charge" refueling efficiency, particularly advantageous in long-distance travel and B端 operational scenarios. As the first adopter of the swap mode, 藍(lán)ear (NIO) has achieved 3,154 charging stations nationwide by March 10, 2025, covering 800 county-level administrative regions, with 970 of these being high-speed charging stations. This has significantly alleviated users' concerns about range anxiety and charging time costs. During his tenure, 藍(lán)ear's高級副總裁沈飛 has emphasized that swap stations can handle three times the capacity of charging stations per day, and through centralized battery management, the lifespans of batteries can be extended, reducing the risk of self-combustion.

However, the swap mode of 藍(lán)ear is highly dependent on its dedicated battery platform and user ecosystem, making it difficult to integrate with other vehicle brands, creating a closed-loop competitive barrier. Meanwhile, the market currently features multiple swap specifications, including those from 藍(lán)ear, 寧德時代, 廣汽, and 吉利, leading to insufficient compatibility due to differing technical approaches. For example, 廣汽埃安 and 藍(lán)ear have signed a swap agreement but have yet to achieve battery interchangeability.

大眾汽車集團(tuán)'s entry into the swap domain represents an attempt by the automaker to address its pressing transformation under the shift to electric vehicles. In 2024, the銷量 of mainstream joint ventures dropped by over 30%, underscoring the intense transformation pressure. By collaborating with 寧德時代, 大眾 leverages its strengths in battery technology and swap infrastructure to rapidly build a swap network, seeking a pathway out of the crisis.

However, the construction of the ecosystem is causing a fundamental shift in the dynamics of collaboration among automakers, battery manufacturers, and energy providers. On one hand,寧德時代, leveraging its battery technology advantage, has formed competitive relationships with 藍(lán)ear, 匯智等 automotive brands through its "EVOGO換電服務(wù)" initiative. On the other hand, 國家電網(wǎng) has united 廣汽, 長安等 automotive brands under the "綠色能源聯(lián)盟" under its leadership, promoting the construction of integrated networks for photovoltaic, storage, charging, and swapping. This multi-layered competitive relationship is accelerating technological innovation and intensifying market competition.

大眾的換電計(jì)劃:突圍戰(zhàn)

One notable aspect is the complexity of building the swap ecosystem, not only facing numerous players in the market but also subject to multiple challenges. From a cost allocation perspective, the swap mode's construction and operation entail significant costs. First, it requires substantial upfront investments due to its heavy reliance on physical assets; scaling up the swap network necessitates large capital expenditures. Taking 大眾's plan as an example, by 2025, it aims to build 500 swap stations, with an average cost per station of 2.5 million yuan, resulting in an initial investment exceeding 12.5 billion yuan. Calculating based on a vehicle service fee of 2 yuan per unit, the station would need to serve 120 vehicles daily to break even. Achieving this in三四線 cities presents significant difficulties. Additionally, ongoing costs related to battery reserves and maintenance must be factored in, lengthening the payback period for the swap model, which creates short-term financial strain for automakers and energy providers.

Furthermore, the operational challenges extend beyond capital allocation and maintenance costs. The long-term profitability of the swap model remains uncertain, adding to the financial pressure on the participating parties. This not only complicates the business model but also raises questions about the sustainability and scalability of the swap technology in the medium to long term.

超級快充陣營通過高壓充電技術(shù)（電壓超過800伏特）實(shí)現(xiàn)了充電時間的顯著縮短，從10分鐘到15分鐘，覆蓋了400到500公里的續(xù)航里程。這一模式的優(yōu)勢在于其兼容性，無需車企之間建立復(fù)雜的深度合作，即可融入現(xiàn)有的充電樁網(wǎng)絡(luò)。

在政策支持方面，2025年將有75個縣開展充換電設(shè)施的補(bǔ)短板試點(diǎn)。目前，上海、深圳等城市已為換電站建設(shè)制定了專項(xiàng)補(bǔ)貼政策，但也有城市正在加速在超級快充技術(shù)上的布局。

換電模式在提升補(bǔ)能效率、優(yōu)化用戶體驗(yàn)以及實(shí)現(xiàn)電池全生命周期管理等方面展現(xiàn)出明顯優(yōu)勢，但同時也面臨著成本高昂、技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)尚未統(tǒng)一以及技術(shù)瓶頸等挑戰(zhàn)。這些挑戰(zhàn)需要主機(jī)廠在技術(shù)突破、利益分配以及成本分擔(dān)等多個層面進(jìn)行深入探索。

就國內(nèi)市場而言，主機(jī)廠在換電賽道上的競爭已進(jìn)入白熱化階段。蔚來汽車創(chuàng)始人李斌已明確今年將是蔚來換電站建設(shè)的關(guān)鍵一年。目前，蔚來已與包括長安汽車、吉利控股集團(tuán)、江汽集團(tuán)、奇瑞汽車、路特斯汽車、廣汽集團(tuán)、中國一汽等多家車企達(dá)成換電合作意向，相關(guān)換電車型即將上市。

大眾的入局意味著換電賽道的競爭將進(jìn)入新的階段?？梢灶A(yù)見，當(dāng)前各車企在進(jìn)入換電領(lǐng)域時，都將致力于將自身的技術(shù)優(yōu)勢轉(zhuǎn)化為產(chǎn)業(yè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，最終形成技術(shù)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)話語權(quán)的爭奪戰(zhàn)。